Fractal SMT Playbook

Trade Assessment

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📖 Quick Reference: Chain States

DIR — 2+ your side. Confirmed. Can anchor. +1

PURGE — Same range both sides SMT'd. Fuel +1. Can't anchor.

LEAN — 1 your side, 0 other. +0.5. Can't anchor.

BRIDGE — PC through a break. +0. Keeps chain alive.

BLOCKED — 1 your side, 1+ other. Breaks chain.

QUIET — 0 your side. Breaks chain.

📖 Quick Reference: Entry Requirements

At Market = CISD close

EQ = midpoint (CISD close + OB) / 2

OB = body open of candle before CISD

Conviction	CISD	Location	Late Entry	Size	Adds
EXTREME (6+)	1-close	At Market	Chase to TP1	Full	2
MAXIMUM (5)	1-close	At Market	Chase to TP1	Full	1-2
HIGHEST (4)	1-close sync	At Market	Chase 50% TP1	Full	1
HIGHEST (4)	1-close	EQ	Chase 50% TP1	Full	1
HIGH (3)	1-close sync	EQ	Don't chase	Full	0-1
HIGH (3)	2-close	EQ	Don't chase	Full	0-1
MED-HIGH (2)	2-close sync	EQ	Don't chase	50-75%	0
MED-HIGH (2)	1-close sync	OB	Don't chase	50-75%	0
MED-HIGH (2)	2-close	OB	Don't chase	50-75%	0
MEDIUM (1)	2-close sync	OB	Don't chase	25-50%	0

Step-Up: Each DIR/PURGE below your entry = move up one conviction level's CISD + Location. Size, late entry, adds stay locked to actual conviction.

Sync Upgrade: Met your CISD, set your limit, and get 2-close sync while waiting? Upgrade location by 1 tier. At Market capped at HIGHEST (4)+.

Confluence Types

Standard SMT (1 Confluence)

Wick divergence at quarter extreme

Any commitment mismatch involving wicks (wick vs nothing, wick vs close, etc.)

Hidden SMT (1 Confluence)

Body divergence (closes only)

2 closes vs 0, 1 close vs 0, or 2 closes vs thick wick (after resolution)

Divergent Candle (1 Confluence)

Parent TF candle sweeps child swing

4H PC sweeps 1H swing = Weekly confluence. Must sweep within 2-quarter window.

SMT Validation

Premium/Discount Filter

⚠️ Mixed zones = SMT doesn't count

PREMIUM → count BEAR SMTs at highs

DISCOUNT → count BULL SMTs at lows

All assets (NQ, ES, YM) must be in same zone

Commitment Spectrum

STRONGEST WEAKEST

2 closes

1 close

thick wick

wick

nothing

HIDDEN

STANDARD

The 6 Chain States

DIR 2+ your side

BASE or +1

Confirmed direction. Can anchor your chain.

Highest = BASE (0.5-5 pts), additional = +1 each. Don't care what other side has.

PURGE range-level

+1

Both sides of same range SMT'd. Low resistance pass-through.

+1 pass-through. Can't anchor. Any chain claims it.

LEAN 1 yours, 0 other

+0.5

One confluence, uncontested. Supports but can't anchor.

Only valid if other side has 0. If other side has 1+ → BLOCKED.

BRIDGE PC

+0 pts

PC bridges through a break. Keeps chain alive.

The Sandwich: parent TF PC + child DIR or PURGE = BRIDGE. Bridges QUIET, BLOCKED, and opposite DIR.

BLOCKED 1 yours, 1+ other

BREAKS

Your side has 1 but other side matched or exceeded.

Breaks chain — needs PC bridge or resolution

QUIET 0 your side

BREAKS

No confluences for your chain. Nothing happened.

Breaks chain — needs SMT or PC bridge

Key Rules

1. 2+ confluences = DIR (don't care about other side)
2. PURGE = same range both sides SMT'd (+1)
3. PC bridges through QUIET, BLOCKED, opposite DIR
4. Opposition = effective conviction min(score, |score - opp|)
5. Need 1+ DIR anchor in chain
6. Enter any TF within chain (anchor → reach)

DIRECTIONAL Base Scores (Highest Anchor)

Yearly

5 pts

Quarterly

4 pts

Monthly

3 pts

Weekly

2 pts

Daily

1 pt

Session

0.5 pt

Additional DIR = +1 | PURGE = +1 | LEAN = +0.5 | BRIDGE = +0 (connects only)

Chain Anatomy

Anchor (Top)

Highest DIR in chain

→ Determines target range

Reach (Bottom)

Lowest connected cycle

→ Determines entry options

Entry TF: Any cycle in chain. Step-up = +1 row per DIR/PURGE below (CISD + Location only). Full conviction counts regardless of entry point.

Conviction Levels

🔥 EXTREME

6+ pts

1-2/mo 75-85% 1:3-1:5

Entry

1-close • At Market

Size

Full + can add (2x)

Targets (std dev filtered)

TP1 → BE + Trail 15m

TP2 → Trail 15m

TP3+ → Trail 5m → EOD

⚡ MAXIMUM

5 pts

2-4/mo 70-80% 1:2.5-1:4

Entry

1-close • At Market

Size

Full + can add (1-2x)

Targets (std dev filtered)

TP1 → BE + Trail 15m

TP2 → Trail 5m

TP3+ → Trail 1m → EOD

💎 HIGHEST

4 pts

4-6/mo 65-75% 1:2-1:3

Entry

1-close → EQ • sync → At Market

Size

Full + can add (1x)

Targets (std dev filtered)

TP1 → BE + Trail 15m

TP2 → Trail 5m

TP3 → EXIT

✅ HIGH

3 pts

6-10/mo 60-70% 1:1.5-1:2.5

Entry

2-close / 1-close sync → EQ

Size

Full + can add (0-1x)

Targets (std dev filtered)

TP1 → BE + Trail 15m

TP2 → Trail 5m

TP3 → EXIT

⚠️ MEDIUM-HIGH

2 pts

8-12/mo 55-65% 1:1-1:1.5

Entry

1-close sync / 2-close → OB • 2-close sync → EQ

Size

50-75% size

Targets (std dev filtered)

TP1 → BE

TP2 → EXIT

⚠️ MEDIUM

1 pt

10-15/mo 50-55% 1:0.5-1:1

Entry

2-close sync → OB

Size

25-50% size

Targets (std dev filtered)

TP1 → BE

TP2 → EXIT

⚡ Opposition Detected?

When both chains are valid: Effective conviction = min(your score, |your score - opposing score|)

Use the effective conviction for ALL entry rules (CISD, Location, Size, Adds, Late Entry).

If effective rounds to 0 or below = NO TRADE (no edge).

⏰ Late Entry Rules

Missed the CISD close? Here's when to chase, wait, or skip.

Chase Limits (Price Running Away)

EXTREME	Chase to TP1
MAXIMUM	Chase to TP1
HIGHEST	Chase to 50%
HIGH	Don't chase
MED-HIGH	Don't chase
MEDIUM	Don't chase

Retrace Entry (Price Comes Back)

EXTREME	Anywhere before TP1
MAXIMUM	Anywhere before TP1
HIGHEST	50% or better (OB ideal)
HIGH	OB only
MED-HIGH	OB only
MEDIUM	OB only

Price returns to OB (before TP1 hit)? Enter normally — you're not late, you got your entry.

Price returns to OB (after TP1 hit)? That's a BE stop-out, not a retrace. Evaluate as a new setup.

Late Entry Sizing

Before 50% to TP1 Full size

50-75% to TP1 75% size

75%+ to TP1 50% size

Past TP1 Skip

Target Adjustment

Normal late entry: Same TPs

Market doesn't care when you entered. Your R:R is worse, hence size adjustments.

Only shift TPs if entering PAST a TP level:

TP1 hit → TP1=old TP2, TP2=old TP3

Example: Late Entry at HIGHEST

1. CISD fires, you miss it

2. Price runs to 75%, creates OB

3. Price retraces to 50% → Enter here (initial)

4. Price moves, pulls back to 75% OB

5. CISD confirms → Add here (1 add at HIGHEST)

📊 Master Trade Chart (click to expand)

Session Reach (5m Entry)

When you have Session DIR/PURGE in your chain. Stop: Beyond 90m H/L

Conviction	CISD	Entry	Size	Adds	At TP1	At TP2	At TP3+
EXTREME (6+)	5m 1-close	Market	Full	2	BE + Trail 15m	Trail 15m	Trail 5m → EOD
MAXIMUM (5)	5m 1-close	Market	Full	1-2	BE + Trail 15m	Trail 5m	Trail 1m → EOD
HIGHEST (4)	5m 1-close	OB pref	Full	1	BE + Trail 15m	Trail 5m	EXIT
HIGH (3)	5m 2-close	OB pref	Full	0-1	BE + Trail 15m	Trail 5m	EXIT
MED-HIGH (2)	5m 1-close sync	OB req	50-75%	0	BE	EXIT	—
MEDIUM (1)	5m 2-close sync	OB req	25-50%	0	BE	EXIT	—

Daily Reach (15m Entry)

When lowest DIR/PURGE is Daily (no Session DIR). Stop: Beyond Session H/L. 15m close = more confirmation, lighter CISD requirements.

Conviction	CISD	Entry	Size	Adds	At TP1	At TP2	At TP3+
EXTREME (6+)	15m 1-close	Market	Full	2	BE + Trail 15m	Trail 15m	Trail 5m → EOD
MAXIMUM (5)	15m 1-close	Market	Full	1-2	BE + Trail 15m	Trail 5m	Trail 1m → EOD
HIGHEST (4)	15m 1-close	OB pref	Full	1	BE + Trail 15m	Trail 5m	EXIT
HIGH (3)	15m 1-close	OB pref	Full	0-1	BE + Trail 15m	Trail 5m	EXIT
MED-HIGH (2)	15m 1-close	OB req	50-75%	0	BE	EXIT	—
MEDIUM (1)	—	Don't trade	—	—	—	—	—

Entry: Market = on CISD close, OB pref = OB preferred, OB req = OB required

TPs: Std dev filtered from reach + TP anchor projections (-1.5 to -2.5 zones)

Key Rules: No partials - full position until exit or trail stops you. EOD exit regardless.

Adds: Add = 50% EXPOSURE (not risk). Add stop at pullback OB (tight).

Trade Management

1 At TP1 (std dev filtered)

✓ Wait for 5m candle CLOSE at/beyond TP1

✓ Move stop to BE

✓ Start trailing on 15m structure

BE + Trail 15m

No partials. Trail entire position on 15m swings.

2 At TP2 (std dev filtered)

★ NO PARTIALS — full position

★ Continue trailing on 15m structure

★ Target: TP3+ → Trail 5m → EOD

Trail 15m (same as TP1)

Tighten to 5m after TP3. Ride to EOD.

↑ If Conviction INCREASES

• New confluence your way → Extend targets, keep trailing

• Range gets PURGED → Loosen trail (more runway)

• HTF confirms → Add on pullback (50% exposure)

↓ If Conviction DECREASES

• New confluence against → Tighten trail, let it stop you

• Cycle gets BLOCKED → Close 100% at market

• HTF flips against → EXIT immediately

Adding to Position (Max 2 Adds)

When to Add

Pullback → OB forms → CISD confirms → add at market

Example: You're short, price drops to TP1, new bearish SMT forms at a lower high, price retraces to that swing's OB → Add here

Add Size

50% EXPOSURE (not risk)

Add stop at pullback OB (tight)

Lock-Profit Stop (after adding)

Set stop where you STILL PROFIT if stopped out:

Entry: 2 contracts @ 25,000 | Add: 1 contract @ 24,930
Stop @ 24,950 → If hit: +100 pts on Entry, -20 pts on Add = +80 pts profit

Exit Urgency Levels

BLOCKED (1v1+)

Cycle has 1 bear + 1 bull confluence

Battle in progress - could go either way. Close to protect gains.

HTF FLIPS AGAINST

HTF now has 2+ confluences AGAINST you

Your thesis is DEAD. Confirmed reversal. Exit NOW.

1 At TP1 (std dev filtered)

✓ Wait for 5m candle CLOSE at/beyond TP1

✓ Move stop to BE

✓ Start trailing on 15m structure

BE + Trail 15m

No partials. Trail entire position on 15m swings.

2 At TP2 (std dev filtered)

★ NO PARTIALS — full position

★ Tighten trail to 5m structure

★ Target: TP3+ → Trail 1m → EOD

Trail 5m

Tighten to 1m after TP3. Ride to EOD.

↑ If Conviction INCREASES

• Range gets PURGED → Upgrade to EXTREME rules (loosen to 15m at TP2)

• Keep trailing everything, extend targets

• HTF confirms → Add on pullback (50% exposure)

↓ If Conviction DECREASES

• HTF weakens → Tighten trail, let it stop you

• Cycle gets BLOCKED → Close 100% at market

• HTF flips against → EXIT immediately

Adding to Position (Max 1-2 Adds)

When to Add

Pullback → OB forms → CISD confirms → add at market

Example: Price hits TP1, new SMT forms, retraces to OB → Add

Add Size

50% EXPOSURE (not risk)

Add stop at pullback OB (tight)

Lock-Profit Stop

After adding, set stop where you still profit if stopped out. Never let an add turn a winner into a loser.

1 At TP1 (std dev filtered)

✓ Wait for 5m candle CLOSE

✓ Move stop to BE

✓ Start trailing on 15m structure

BE + Trail 15m

No partials. Trail entire position on 15m swings.

2 At TP2 (std dev filtered)

★ NO PARTIALS — full position

★ Tighten trail to 5m structure

★ Target: TP3 → EXIT

Trail 5m

Exit at TP3 or when trail stops you.

↑ If Conviction INCREASES

• Monthly becomes DIR → Upgrade to MAXIMUM rules

• Range gets PURGED → Upgrade to EXTREME

• Consider adding on pullback

↓ If Conviction DECREASES

• Cycle weakens → Close 100% at TP2, no trail

• Minor conflict → Tighten, close at TP1

• BLOCKED → Close 100% at market

Adding to Position

When to Add

New confluence forms your way + clean pullback

Only add if conviction has room to upgrade

Max Adds

1 pullback entry only

Add = 50% of original size

Lock-Profit Stop

After adding, set stop where you still profit if stopped out.

1 At TP1 (std dev filtered)

✓ Wait for 5m candle CLOSE

✓ Move stop to BE

✓ Start trailing on 15m structure

BE + Trail 15m

No partials. Trail entire position on 15m swings.

2 At TP2 (std dev filtered)

★ NO PARTIALS — full position

★ Tighten trail to 5m structure

★ Target: TP3 → EXIT

Trail 5m

Exit at TP3 or when trail stops you.

↑ If Conviction INCREASES

• QUIET becomes DIR your way → Upgrade rules

• Switch to 15m trailing

• Extend targets to TP4

↓ If Conviction DECREASES

• Slight conflict → Exit at TP2, no trail

• Anchor weakens → Consider closing at TP1

• BLOCKED → Close at market

Adding to Position

0-1 adds allowed. Only if conviction upgrades - add at pullback OB with tight stop.

1 At TP1 (std dev filtered)

! Move to BE (protect the trade)

! Lower conviction = faster protection

BE only (no trail)

Less edge = tighter management

2 At TP2 (std dev filtered)

★ EXIT — close 100%

★ No TP3, no trailing

Full exit at TP2

Don't push for more at this conviction.

↑ If Conviction INCREASES

• HTF gets confluence → Upgrade to HIGH+

• Can increase position size

• Extend targets to PDL/PDH

↓ If Conviction DECREASES

• More conflict → Tighten hard, close at TP1

• Don't wait for TP2

• BLOCKED → Close immediately

DO NOT ADD

Unless conviction upgrades significantly. Reduced size trade = don't compound the risk.

⚠️

Remember: 50-75% Position Size

This is not a full conviction trade. Reduce size accordingly.

Target Levels (Std Dev Filtered)

TPs are derived from std dev filtering - draw from reach + TP anchor manipulation legs, filter cycle levels in -1.5 to -2.5 zones. TP anchor capped at Weekly for day trading.

TP1

First std dev filtered level

HIGH+ = BE + Trail 15m

MED = BE only

TP2

Second std dev filtered level

EXTREME = Trail 15m

MAX/HIGH = Trail 5m

MED = EXIT

TP3+

Additional std dev filtered levels

EXTREME = Trail 5m → EOD

MAX = Trail 1m → EOD

HIGH/HIGHEST = EXIT

Trade Assessment

Confluences

Confluence Types

SMT Validation

The 6 Chain States

Conviction Levels

Session Reach (5m Entry)

Daily Reach (15m Entry)

Trade Management

1 At TP1 (std dev filtered)

2 At TP2 (std dev filtered)

↑ If Conviction INCREASES

↓ If Conviction DECREASES

Adding to Position (Max 2 Adds)

Exit Urgency Levels

1 At TP1 (std dev filtered)

2 At TP2 (std dev filtered)

↑ If Conviction INCREASES

↓ If Conviction DECREASES

Adding to Position (Max 1-2 Adds)

1 At TP1 (std dev filtered)

2 At TP2 (std dev filtered)

↑ If Conviction INCREASES

↓ If Conviction DECREASES

Adding to Position

1 At TP1 (std dev filtered)

2 At TP2 (std dev filtered)

↑ If Conviction INCREASES

↓ If Conviction DECREASES

Adding to Position

1 At TP1 (std dev filtered)

2 At TP2 (std dev filtered)

↑ If Conviction INCREASES

↓ If Conviction DECREASES

DO NOT ADD

Target Levels (Std Dev Filtered)