Fractal SMT Playbook

Trade Assessment

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Confluences

$
Yearly
5 pts
PQH/PQL
QUIET
Quarterly
4 pts
PMH/PML
QUIET
Monthly
3 pts
PWH/PWL
QUIET
Weekly
2 pts
PDH/PDL
QUIET
Daily
1 pt
Session H/L
QUIET
Session
0.5 pt
90m H/L
QUIET
Chain Analysis
(must reach selected cycle)
Year Qtr Mon Wk Day Sess
Higher TF
Session
Lower TF
▼ BEAR CHAIN
0 pts
Year
-
→
Qtr
-
→
Mon
-
→
Wk
-
→
Day
-
→
Sess
-
▲ BULL CHAIN
0 pts
Year
-
→
Qtr
-
→
Mon
-
→
Wk
-
→
Day
-
→
Sess
-
Select direction
📖 Quick Reference: Chain States
DIR — 2+ your side. Confirmed. Can anchor. +1
PURGE — Same range both sides SMT'd. Fuel +1. Can't anchor.
LEAN — 1 your side, 0 other. +0.5. Can't anchor.
BRIDGE — PC through a break. +0. Keeps chain alive.
BLOCKED — 1 your side, 1+ other. Breaks chain.
QUIET — 0 your side. Breaks chain.
📖 Quick Reference: Entry Requirements
At Market = CISD close
EQ = midpoint (CISD close + OB) / 2
OB = body open of candle before CISD
Conviction CISD Location Late Entry Size Adds
EXTREME (6+) 1-close At Market Chase to TP1 Full 2
MAXIMUM (5) 1-close At Market Chase to TP1 Full 1-2
HIGHEST (4) 1-close sync At Market Chase 50% TP1 Full 1
HIGHEST (4) 1-close EQ Chase 50% TP1 Full 1
HIGH (3) 1-close sync EQ Don't chase Full 0-1
HIGH (3) 2-close EQ Don't chase Full 0-1
MED-HIGH (2) 2-close sync EQ Don't chase 50-75% 0
MED-HIGH (2) 1-close sync OB Don't chase 50-75% 0
MED-HIGH (2) 2-close OB Don't chase 50-75% 0
MEDIUM (1) 2-close sync OB Don't chase 25-50% 0
Step-Up: Each DIR/PURGE below your entry = move up one conviction level's CISD + Location. Size, late entry, adds stay locked to actual conviction.
Sync Upgrade: Met your CISD, set your limit, and get 2-close sync while waiting? Upgrade location by 1 tier. At Market capped at HIGHEST (4)+.

Confluence Types

Standard SMT (1 Confluence)
Wick divergence at quarter extreme
Any commitment mismatch involving wicks (wick vs nothing, wick vs close, etc.)
Hidden SMT (1 Confluence)
Body divergence (closes only)
2 closes vs 0, 1 close vs 0, or 2 closes vs thick wick (after resolution)
Divergent Candle (1 Confluence)
Parent TF candle sweeps child swing
4H PC sweeps 1H swing = Weekly confluence. Must sweep within 2-quarter window.

SMT Validation

Premium/Discount Filter
⚠️ Mixed zones = SMT doesn't count
PREMIUM → count BEAR SMTs at highs
DISCOUNT → count BULL SMTs at lows
All assets (NQ, ES, YM) must be in same zone
Commitment Spectrum
STRONGEST WEAKEST
2 closes
1 close
thick wick
wick
nothing
HIDDEN
STANDARD

The 6 Chain States

DIR 2+ your side
BASE or +1

Confirmed direction. Can anchor your chain.

Highest = BASE (0.5-5 pts), additional = +1 each. Don't care what other side has.
PURGE range-level
+1

Both sides of same range SMT'd. Low resistance pass-through.

+1 pass-through. Can't anchor. Any chain claims it.
LEAN 1 yours, 0 other
+0.5

One confluence, uncontested. Supports but can't anchor.

Only valid if other side has 0. If other side has 1+ → BLOCKED.
BRIDGE PC
+0 pts

PC bridges through a break. Keeps chain alive.

The Sandwich: parent TF PC + child DIR or PURGE = BRIDGE. Bridges QUIET, BLOCKED, and opposite DIR.
BLOCKED 1 yours, 1+ other
BREAKS

Your side has 1 but other side matched or exceeded.

Breaks chain — needs PC bridge or resolution
QUIET 0 your side
BREAKS

No confluences for your chain. Nothing happened.

Breaks chain — needs SMT or PC bridge
Key Rules
  • 1. 2+ confluences = DIR (don't care about other side)
  • 2. PURGE = same range both sides SMT'd (+1)
  • 3. PC bridges through QUIET, BLOCKED, opposite DIR
  • 4. Opposition = effective conviction min(score, |score - opp|)
  • 5. Need 1+ DIR anchor in chain
  • 6. Enter any TF within chain (anchor → reach)
DIRECTIONAL Base Scores (Highest Anchor)
Yearly
5 pts
Quarterly
4 pts
Monthly
3 pts
Weekly
2 pts
Daily
1 pt
Session
0.5 pt
Additional DIR = +1 | PURGE = +1 | LEAN = +0.5 | BRIDGE = +0 (connects only)
Chain Anatomy
Anchor (Top)
Highest DIR in chain
→ Determines target range
Reach (Bottom)
Lowest connected cycle
→ Determines entry options
Entry TF: Any cycle in chain. Step-up = +1 row per DIR/PURGE below (CISD + Location only). Full conviction counts regardless of entry point.

Conviction Levels

🔥 EXTREME
6+ pts
1-2/mo 75-85% 1:3-1:5
Entry
1-close • At Market
Size
Full + can add (2x)
Targets (std dev filtered)
TP1 → BE + Trail 15m
TP2 → Trail 15m
TP3+ → Trail 5m → EOD
⚡ MAXIMUM
5 pts
2-4/mo 70-80% 1:2.5-1:4
Entry
1-close • At Market
Size
Full + can add (1-2x)
Targets (std dev filtered)
TP1 → BE + Trail 15m
TP2 → Trail 5m
TP3+ → Trail 1m → EOD
💎 HIGHEST
4 pts
4-6/mo 65-75% 1:2-1:3
Entry
1-close → EQ • sync → At Market
Size
Full + can add (1x)
Targets (std dev filtered)
TP1 → BE + Trail 15m
TP2 → Trail 5m
TP3 → EXIT
✅ HIGH
3 pts
6-10/mo 60-70% 1:1.5-1:2.5
Entry
2-close / 1-close sync → EQ
Size
Full + can add (0-1x)
Targets (std dev filtered)
TP1 → BE + Trail 15m
TP2 → Trail 5m
TP3 → EXIT
⚠️ MEDIUM-HIGH
2 pts
8-12/mo 55-65% 1:1-1:1.5
Entry
1-close sync / 2-close → OB • 2-close sync → EQ
Size
50-75% size
Targets (std dev filtered)
TP1 → BE
TP2 → EXIT
⚠️ MEDIUM
1 pt
10-15/mo 50-55% 1:0.5-1:1
Entry
2-close sync → OB
Size
25-50% size
Targets (std dev filtered)
TP1 → BE
TP2 → EXIT
⚡ Opposition Detected?
When both chains are valid: Effective conviction = min(your score, |your score - opposing score|)
Use the effective conviction for ALL entry rules (CISD, Location, Size, Adds, Late Entry).
If effective rounds to 0 or below = NO TRADE (no edge).
⏰ Late Entry Rules
Missed the CISD close? Here's when to chase, wait, or skip.
Chase Limits (Price Running Away)
EXTREME Chase to TP1
MAXIMUM Chase to TP1
HIGHEST Chase to 50%
HIGH Don't chase
MED-HIGH Don't chase
MEDIUM Don't chase
Retrace Entry (Price Comes Back)
EXTREME Anywhere before TP1
MAXIMUM Anywhere before TP1
HIGHEST 50% or better (OB ideal)
HIGH OB only
MED-HIGH OB only
MEDIUM OB only
Price returns to OB (before TP1 hit)? Enter normally — you're not late, you got your entry.
Price returns to OB (after TP1 hit)? That's a BE stop-out, not a retrace. Evaluate as a new setup.
Late Entry Sizing
Before 50% to TP1 Full size
50-75% to TP1 75% size
75%+ to TP1 50% size
Past TP1 Skip
Target Adjustment
Normal late entry: Same TPs
Market doesn't care when you entered. Your R:R is worse, hence size adjustments.
Only shift TPs if entering PAST a TP level:
TP1 hit → TP1=old TP2, TP2=old TP3
Example: Late Entry at HIGHEST
1. CISD fires, you miss it
2. Price runs to 75%, creates OB
3. Price retraces to 50% → Enter here (initial)
4. Price moves, pulls back to 75% OB
5. CISD confirms → Add here (1 add at HIGHEST)
📊 Master Trade Chart (click to expand)

Session Reach (5m Entry)

When you have Session DIR/PURGE in your chain. Stop: Beyond 90m H/L

Conviction CISD Entry Size Adds At TP1 At TP2 At TP3+
EXTREME (6+) 5m 1-close Market Full 2 BE + Trail 15m Trail 15m Trail 5m → EOD
MAXIMUM (5) 5m 1-close Market Full 1-2 BE + Trail 15m Trail 5m Trail 1m → EOD
HIGHEST (4) 5m 1-close OB pref Full 1 BE + Trail 15m Trail 5m EXIT
HIGH (3) 5m 2-close OB pref Full 0-1 BE + Trail 15m Trail 5m EXIT
MED-HIGH (2) 5m 1-close sync OB req 50-75% 0 BE EXIT —
MEDIUM (1) 5m 2-close sync OB req 25-50% 0 BE EXIT —

Daily Reach (15m Entry)

When lowest DIR/PURGE is Daily (no Session DIR). Stop: Beyond Session H/L. 15m close = more confirmation, lighter CISD requirements.

Conviction CISD Entry Size Adds At TP1 At TP2 At TP3+
EXTREME (6+) 15m 1-close Market Full 2 BE + Trail 15m Trail 15m Trail 5m → EOD
MAXIMUM (5) 15m 1-close Market Full 1-2 BE + Trail 15m Trail 5m Trail 1m → EOD
HIGHEST (4) 15m 1-close OB pref Full 1 BE + Trail 15m Trail 5m EXIT
HIGH (3) 15m 1-close OB pref Full 0-1 BE + Trail 15m Trail 5m EXIT
MED-HIGH (2) 15m 1-close OB req 50-75% 0 BE EXIT —
MEDIUM (1) — Don't trade — — — — —
Entry: Market = on CISD close, OB pref = OB preferred, OB req = OB required
TPs: Std dev filtered from reach + TP anchor projections (-1.5 to -2.5 zones)
Key Rules: No partials - full position until exit or trail stops you. EOD exit regardless.
Adds: Add = 50% EXPOSURE (not risk). Add stop at pullback OB (tight).

Trade Management

1 At TP1 (std dev filtered)

✓ Wait for 5m candle CLOSE at/beyond TP1
✓ Move stop to BE
✓ Start trailing on 15m structure
BE + Trail 15m
No partials. Trail entire position on 15m swings.

2 At TP2 (std dev filtered)

★ NO PARTIALS — full position
★ Continue trailing on 15m structure
★ Target: TP3+ → Trail 5m → EOD
Trail 15m (same as TP1)
Tighten to 5m after TP3. Ride to EOD.

↑ If Conviction INCREASES

• New confluence your way → Extend targets, keep trailing
• Range gets PURGED → Loosen trail (more runway)
• HTF confirms → Add on pullback (50% exposure)

↓ If Conviction DECREASES

• New confluence against → Tighten trail, let it stop you
• Cycle gets BLOCKED → Close 100% at market
• HTF flips against → EXIT immediately

Adding to Position (Max 2 Adds)

When to Add
Pullback → OB forms → CISD confirms → add at market
Example: You're short, price drops to TP1, new bearish SMT forms at a lower high, price retraces to that swing's OB → Add here
Add Size
50% EXPOSURE (not risk)
Add stop at pullback OB (tight)
Lock-Profit Stop (after adding)
Set stop where you STILL PROFIT if stopped out:
Entry: 2 contracts @ 25,000 | Add: 1 contract @ 24,930
Stop @ 24,950 → If hit: +100 pts on Entry, -20 pts on Add = +80 pts profit

Exit Urgency Levels

BLOCKED (1v1+)
Cycle has 1 bear + 1 bull confluence
Battle in progress - could go either way. Close to protect gains.
HTF FLIPS AGAINST
HTF now has 2+ confluences AGAINST you
Your thesis is DEAD. Confirmed reversal. Exit NOW.

Target Levels (Std Dev Filtered)

TPs are derived from std dev filtering - draw from reach + TP anchor manipulation legs, filter cycle levels in -1.5 to -2.5 zones. TP anchor capped at Weekly for day trading.
TP1
First std dev filtered level
HIGH+ = BE + Trail 15m
MED = BE only
TP2
Second std dev filtered level
EXTREME = Trail 15m
MAX/HIGH = Trail 5m
MED = EXIT
TP3+
Additional std dev filtered levels
EXTREME = Trail 5m → EOD
MAX = Trail 1m → EOD
HIGH/HIGHEST = EXIT